Solitaire leg 3 - wind forecast
Post by iconPost by BennyLava | 2009-08-14 | 16:49:50

Cvetan: don't know if were aware of it but yesterdays wind change was considerably different to the one forecasted. The big band of low winds did not materialize and was much smaller then forecasted and favored the leader group and the pack that stalked them.

My question is: which forecast did you use? Was that the same as the website? Is there a way to avoid the above to happen?

I saw the leadergroup heading that area and based on the 2 day track simulation I decided to head West, unfortunately losing aprox. 3000 places by that.

I saw a member of this forum (TSIONA) who was also heading West and losing many places. He/she is usually in the top 100 if I remember. May he/she can shine some light on this.

As said before this leg your program was far from effective and I wonder what the reason was for that.

Having said that it was pretty effective for the Fastnet, kuddos for that!

commenticon 1 Comment
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2009-08-14 | 17:20:33
I think that this time we got some bad luck with the weather systems. I did not follow the forecasts very close, but have noticed the 'problem'.

Common wisdom also tells us that in unstable conditions it's best to go directly for the great circle route, but the optimizer is not aware of that. I think that this was the case yesterday.

Such is life. The optimizer is reliable with good forecasts, and the GFS does very well in stable weather conditions with strong winds, but is extremely unreliable when the forecast calls for 3ms VRB. I've seen that kind of 'failure' few times.

First time was during the VOR just before Rio. There were patches of wind here and there and it was sheer luck to get in the correct square.

Another time was crossing the Alps during the TDF. A lot of players fell for the forecast for stronger winds to the East not thinking that West wind should be stronger West of the mountains, and they were not using the site (it suggested the Eastern route for a while too). I did not follow its advice and got to 2nd place.
border
Topics list
Posts
border
4
border
border
26
border
border
53
border
border
42
border
border
12
border
border
5
border
border
17
border
border
2
border
border
4
border
border
3
border
border
1
border
border
35
border
border
3
border
border
2
border
border
11
border
border
4
border
border
15
border
border
8
border
border
5
border
border
11
border
border
5
border
border
Copyright 2009 by ZEZO.ORG. All Rights Reserved.