LA > Honolulu?
Post by iconPost by bmertens | 2020-03-31 | 21:16:06

What happened to the LA>Honolulu race? It's still in the calendar as starting today, but so far hasn't shown up. I see zezo has it available.

commenticon 31 Comments
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-03-31 | 23:11:42
It opens in an hour. Cvetan opened it early per my request so we could see in advance whether or not starting immediately would be a good move.
Post by iconPost by bmertens | 2020-03-31 | 23:29:12
Ahhh. I thought the time was CET. Guess I didn't need to stay home from work today ;)

So, you've done this before, what's a good predicted time to start?
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-03-31 | 23:38:46
Winning time last year was 85 hours 15 minutes. Hard to know if the same conditions will surface to break 90 again or not, but the winning time will almost certainly be under 100. So... My prediction is that nothing on the starting chart will look good at the end. I'll probably do a run early anyway, just because I'm running on credits and would like to collect cards. I'm not sure if I'll start soon after it opens, or if I'll wait for the next reasonable start window (around 110 hours is "reasonable").
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-04-01 | 00:28:10
Ah, but... They're doing it in monohull supermaxis. Last year was in Multis. So Zezo will have incorrect times and routings until Cvetan gets a chance to update it.

So last year's 85-hour benchmark is irrelevant. In these boats, maybe 120 hours or something like that? 130? Just guessing.

Edit: I think the 100-footer is closer to last year's polars than I thought. Or maybe Cvetan actually already got it right. I started and I'm not as much slower than his routing as I expected.

Post by iconPost by zezo | 2020-04-01 | 09:35:20
It seems that the polars are pretty close below 20 knots TWS.

Which makes some sense. Multihulls have huge advantage above hull speed, but below that it's more a matter of aerodynamics of the sail.

Polars diverge above 20 knots. About 50% difference at 30. Which means that the record won't be 83 hours even if in the current conditions the times are pretty much the same.


Post by iconPost by GeGaX | 2020-04-03 | 20:26:52
Hi Cvetan and YourMom 😉
I did not understand the predicted times table which was all in red.

I looked for the real time of this record.
It's Comanche (Super maxi 100) in July 2017:
2215 nm in 5d 01h 55m 20s (avgSPD : 18.15 kts)
Which gives a reasonable window at 122h.

Cvetan, when you have time can you modify predicted times ?
(a small window appears on 05/04)

Thanks 😉
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-04-03 | 22:12:46
i think the colors are still set for last year's Ultim polars... 120 seems pretty good this year. If we get a better weather system than we've seen so far, you might get numbers closer to 100-110, but with the whole event being only a month, that might not happen.
Post by iconPost by bmertens | 2020-04-04 | 16:02:26
Best ETA of the boats I'm following is currently around 108hrs. I'm right behind him. Exit was clean, one tack in 7knts and past Catalina in an hour. Good blow off the coast for the first day and then champagne trade winds it looks like all the way to the finish. Can easily see 100 hrs possible if the high moves a bit north.

Other observation is full pack appears to be worth about 6-7 hrs, judging by Bigbird, who appears to be running with no options. In Chiloe I don't think it was worth more than an hour.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-04-04 | 17:09:45
Who has 108 hours? Is that based on routing data or the dashboard's ERT? I ask because I'm not aware of anyone the router is projecting to finish better than me (although the other boats that started within an hour of the event opening are projected also to have comparable times to mine).
Post by iconPost by bmertens | 2020-04-04 | 18:43:07
That was the dashboard ERT. Calculating elapsed plus routing, I got you at 114, Wallin and I at 117. Sorry.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-04-04 | 19:46:09
Great, thanks! Yeah.... Dashboard ERT is tricky. Originally, it was calculated using each boat's average VMG-to-date, which should be a more accurate projection... But the only way to get VMG-to-date was to take VR's defined course length and subtract the remaining miles... and apparently for some races VR's defined course length was quite inaccurate, so for those races, it was ugly. So it was changed to instead use average speed. The trouble with using average speed is that it assumes your average speed in all directions will be your average VMG straight-line to the finish from wherever you are. So it will generally be too optimistic.

If VR's defined course length was accurate, or we had some other way to get an accurate measurement of DTF from the Start, then the original VMG approach would probably be better. (Although my own complaints about the inaccuracy of the VMG approach were why it got changed to the current model...).

The truth is that it's going to be of limited value no matter how it's calculated, simply because the conditions for the remainder of your course can't be assumed to match the average of what you've done to-date. That doesn't stop me from obsessively checking it, though! :-)
Post by iconPost by bmertens | 2020-04-04 | 20:37:27
Maybe, if when you click to get a routing for a competitor, it adds their ETA to their elapsed (which dashboard already knows) and displays that in the dashboard. I understand doing it for everyone you are following would be a resource problem, but normally you are only concerned about a few people.

That would be really useful in fleet races where the fleet has split into multiple strategies.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-04-04 | 20:54:28
Good to know, thanks. I haven't been doing that.
Post by iconPost by bmertens | 2020-04-04 | 21:23:01
It's not currently a feature. You have to do the math yourself.

It could be a feature, hint, hint ;)
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-04-04 | 22:19:28
Oops, thanks for clarifying. I'm not sure if the dashboard can get data back from its routings or not. If it can, I can see two potential problems... One is that it would only work in races where the finish is within 16 days of the start. It would need logic for what to do (ignore? set to 999?) the routings that fall short of the finish. The other is that you'd have different ERT definitions for different boats, depending on whether or not you've run a routing for them, and some might have outdated routings. Which might require color codes or other indicators of the ERT source (or just don't show an ERT at all unless a routing has been run recently).
Post by iconPost by mak08 | 2020-04-04 | 23:21:07
This is not possible, unfortunately. As YourMomSA suspected, the dashboard cannot get data back from the router. It just triggers a navigation to the router web page.

Regarding ERT, it's tricky indeed. The basic method I'm using is simple:
Compute the remaining time based on remaining distance and average speed.

The obvious drawback of this method (besides not considering the weather, of course) is, it's relatively inaccurate toward the end (and the start) of the race because your remaining average speed may deviate more from the overall average speed.

The other problem is computing the average speed in the first place. Initially I used the total race length and time provided by VR - but it looks like the numbers are not based on nautical but on marketing reasoning. For this race, the resulting average speed is 46kn (4500nm, 4days).

Currently I use the elapsed time and actual distance travelled from start, which is provided by VR. The resulting average speed is usually meaningless initially, but it gets more accurate as the race continues. The dashboard display the average speed for each boat, and you can take it into account as a corrective factor.

Post by iconPost by GeGaX | 2020-04-04 | 23:51:12
The distance is in km, I think, VRDash gives 2213.75nm.
And the duration seems very optimistic, it is missing one day, for me in monohull
About 4 days is "just" 6 hours more than the real record established by Lending Club 2 (= IDEC)
Post by iconPost by mak08 | 2020-04-05 | 00:28:34
Ouch, of course! So they probably switched from nm to km at some point. (But where do you see 2213.75nm? It's also not equivalent to 4500km).

Btw, there is also the 'course' section in the Game_GetBoatState message that can be used to compute the race distance. This yields 2368.15nm, but it's still useless without a good value for the race time.

Post by iconPost by GeGaX | 2020-04-05 | 09:14:12
I used a Guest boat, started an attempt and put it at TWA 0.0
When I received the WS message I got the info with distanceToEnd
(but I may have been wrong when I noted the value ...)

I had fun calculating "Response Game_GetBoatState.scriptData.leg.course" and I get 2368.15nm (4385.82km)
4500, I saw it in "Response Game_GetBoatState.scriptData.leg.estimatedLength" as "estimatedTime: 4"

When they created the race, VR took over data from last year, I think
They left estimedTime and set the wrong value for estimedLength

Post by iconPost by bmertens | 2020-04-05 | 01:12:54
The cards you see when you click on each boat provide the elapsed time. That's how I calculated the expected time of each of the boats above. Clicked on the card, got the elapsed, then ran the routing to see time to finish, and then added the two together.

Does that value not get returned when you query the server?
Post by iconPost by mak08 | 2020-04-05 | 10:49:33
The dashboard does not query the router itself, it requests the browser to open an URL in a new tab. The browser performs the HTTP request and displays the results.

Post by iconPost by bmertens | 2020-04-05 | 19:08:08
Congrats @YourMomSA on setting the reference time! No one that I can see, currently on the course, has a shot of beating that.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-04-05 | 19:44:44
:-)

Thanks!

When I started, I was looking at it as a card collecting run. Then when Cvetan updated it to be for Mono 100s, I realized it might be a good time. If a better weather window opens before the end of the month, though, 2,000+ boats could beat my time. So I guess now I just have to watch and root for weak winds.

In the meantime, I'm going again, just to collect cards. I'll run it aground near the finish and collect cards until the event closes or a good window opens. Don't be surprised when my boat looks awful during the US night tonight... I won't be spending cards to get to Honolulu fast.

Pretty economical event so far... I didn't buy HG, and haven't had to buy any cards.
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2020-04-05 | 19:50:35
One month without new window? I know you are a wizard, but that's a bit too much ;-)
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-04-05 | 22:35:00
The current table shows nothing better than 131 hours through starts on the 12th... That's half way through the month (after you account for needing to start by the end of the 25th to finish before it closes). I didn't think my first run could be a winning run when I started, but... I'm starting to think it has a chance to hold up. We'll see.

But... one weather system with 20+ kts in the right direction, and 114 hours won't look very good anymore. (And I'll have to buy HG)


Post by iconPost by bmertens | 2020-04-05 | 19:53:18
Thank you! I've asked a couple of times why top VSR guys appear to ground themselves near the end of races. I thought it was to avoid a poor result and resulting negative points. I've been told that doesn't work, but no one has said why they are doing it. Now I know.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-04-05 | 22:41:46
I'm not sure if that's the only reason to do it, but it's why I do it. It only makes sense when you're running on credits, of course... But I do most records on credits. By grounding near the finish, you can easily hit the finish line to restart without paying the restart fee if a new start window opens... and in the meantime, you can collect cards.

One suggestion, though... Don't ground IN the line that boats will want to sail to actually finish. I can be annoying for people who follow you, because your boat blocks their view. I try to tuck it into a cove near the finish. Sometimes if the land has interesting features, I'll navigate around islands for a little simple fun.

Post by iconPost by lemulot79 | 2020-04-06 | 16:40:28
About the stranding before the line.
For other boats there is always the possibility to display only his boat.
Post by iconPost by tabasco2 | 2020-04-07 | 21:49:07


Post by iconPost by tabasco2 | 2020-04-07 | 21:49:09
a question. Does it have a cost in credits to start a second time in LA- Honollulu ?. Or just start again without any expense?

Thank you
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-04-08 | 01:00:47
Starting again doesn't cost anything... but... returning to the starting line without finishing does. This is true in all of the record events. I don't recall the cost - I think it's 500-1000 credits depending on the category, or something like that.

So you can do as many runs as you want without additional cost, as long as you finish each one.
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