Summer
Post by iconPost by Austen | 2020-08-27 | 06:40:09

I've been re-routed, twice in the wrong direction. There seems to be a glitch or huge forecast changes. i went from top 50 to 10,000 in 24 hours as a result. i realize the routing is only as good as the forecasts, and there are a couple of low pressure areas affecting the weather. i just don't know if it is a program error, forecast massive changes or user stupidity ( me) ... ?

commenticon 9 Comments
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-08-27 | 10:45:59
If it's user stupidity, then it's contagious. I've gone from top 10 to drifting in circles in 24 hours. My new objective is to beat a teammate who went west around New Guinea ;)

Seriously, the forecast has been highly unstable. GFS (which the game and zezo run on) has been wilding at odds with ECMWF. I've been setting my long term strategy to ECMWF, simply because it looks more favorable for me, until it didn't.

A couple of the grib downloads have been slow loading the last few days. Last night's 00Z forecast had only downloaded 9 hours when I gave up and went to bed, when it normally would have completely downloaded. Result was 2knts and a 180 degree turn when I woke up.

I checked your position Austen and you appear to be in the SW breakaway group. No one in that group has been placed higher than 10,000 since they broke west a few days ago. VR can give you wildly optimistic rankings, especially in the top left corner of the game screen. Most accurate is probably the number you get in the higher-level game menu. On a positive, yesterday, your group was forecast to finish 20 hours ahead of the current leaders. So, stick with it.

Post by iconPost by Austen | 2020-08-29 | 02:43:20
Thank you for that. Good to know my user skills are contagious... i guess it is the weather volatility of this area that is causing the chaos and my stress. I should know this as i'm based on Guam.

Thank you for checking my position too. I'm committed now, with no other crazy options. I hope your projected finish forecast is correct.
Post by iconPost by lemulot79 | 2020-08-27 | 12:55:21
Hello everybody.
(Google translate used)
I read on this forum that it was better to use a "track duration" with a number of days necessary to reach the chosen objective.
On the 24th, many skippers headed north.
After discussion with "TOPPEN", he tells me that he uses 5 or 6 days maximum.
(the weather is not reliable beyond 6 days) can it be right?
Thank you for your comments.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-08-27 | 15:35:27
Toppen's method (using a shorter time horizon) can be good for managing volatile forecasts. Particularly when the volatility is a huge ugly spot a few days ahead of you that the router is proposing that you sail wildly variable courses to avoid. I think a lot of people do it that way.

I tend to choose alternative destinations instead. I'll run it with a longer horizon, and look at the isochrones, and I'll try to figure out what the router is sending me all over the place to avoid, and I'll decide where I want to go. Then I'll route to that spot. Sometimes this works out well for me. Other times, it produces disasters as I remain stubborn about a plan while the forecast gains consistency that says I'm sailing into the jaws of death.

It partly comes down to your priorities. If your goal is a quality finish, then following zezo's suggestion every time it wildly changes in unstable conditions will usually achieve that, as you'll be doing what a lot of people do, and your result against them will depend on how well you do it. If your goal is to do better than that, then you need to pick a plan and stay more consistent with it, and your plan needs to be either the right plan or at least neutral. Sailing consistently on a neutral plan will beat changing your plan every time the forecast updates. But sailing consistently on a wrong plan will ruin your race.

On the other hand, if your goal is to win, then you need to pick the right plan and be consistent with it. Which means rolling the dice a bit in volatile conditions, and being willing to risk an awful finish. You need to try to "win your group" and then hope your group wins the whole thing. I tend to do this... and sometimes it works... and sometimes it doesn't... which is the biggest reason my VSR isn't at the top.

I'm glad I didn't sign up for Summer Race. After Europa, I didn't need the stress of volatile light wind conditions. That stuff can be fun, but it can also be a nightmare.
Post by iconPost by Austen | 2020-08-29 | 02:45:51
Thank you for clarifying the tactics and Zero's shortcomings. I only started using this a few races ago. I think you choice to not sail in the Summer race was smart. Too much STRESS!
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-08-27 | 16:18:58
What stress 😰

BTW, want to really stress out? Current leader on predicted time (that I can see) is my teammate Deuce of Gears, currently at 13,708 position, north of Morotai. He went west around New Guinea and has a current predicted time 10 hours a head of La_Sémillante TPN. He's picked up the cyclone and has a rocket sled ride to the finish.

Post by iconPost by PML | 2020-08-27 | 19:51:50
Sozinho@tpn is in a much better position...
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-08-27 | 20:49:36
I'm finding out about more and more boats over there. When you think about how many boats at the beginning of the race headed that way, but dropped off the radar when they got overtaken on DTF, there might be an armada lurking.
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-08-28 | 17:01:54
Someone has painted a U-turn sign on the router page in front of the lead east group 🤣
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